Minnesota has several quality wins this year, against perennial mid-major powers Sienna and Western Kentucky, as well as over last year's Cinderella team Cornell. They also beat North Carolina when everybody thought North Carolina was really good and they were ranked 8th in the country. But Minnesota also lost at home to Virginia in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and dropped their first two Big Ten conference games (@ Michigan State and @ Wisconsin). Their record now stands at 12-3, 0-2 in conference.
This is a veteran laden team, starting two seniors, two juniors, and one sophomore. This is what the likely starting lineups will look like come Sunday:
|
Ohio
State
|
|||||||
|
Player
|
Min.
PG
|
PPG
|
APG
|
RPG
|
Height
|
Position
|
|
|
Dallas Lauderdale
|
20.7
|
5.3
|
0.2
|
5.1
|
6'8"
|
C
|
|
|
Jared Sullinger
|
28.4
|
18.1
|
0.2
|
10
|
6'9"
|
PF
|
|
|
David Lighty
|
30
|
12.7
|
3.8
|
4.1
|
6'5"
|
SF
|
|
|
Jon Diebler
|
32.3
|
12.5
|
2.6
|
1.9
|
6'6"
|
SG
|
|
|
William Buford
|
28.1
|
13.6
|
3.6
|
4.3
|
6'5"
|
PG
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
|
|||||
|
Player
|
Min. PG
|
PPG
|
APG
|
RPG
|
Height
|
Position
|
|
Al Nolen
|
29.3
|
8.1
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
6'1"
|
PG
|
|
Blake Hoffarber
|
33.7
|
13.8
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
6'4"
|
SG
|
|
Rodney Williams
|
21.5
|
6.5
|
1.4
|
3.5
|
6'7"
|
SF
|
|
Trever Mbakwe
|
27.1
|
13.2
|
0.7
|
10
|
6'8"
|
PF
|
Minnesota has a very solid frontline (although how Ralph Sampson III is not even averaging 6 rebounds a game is beyond me), but there is a considerable size difference between the starting guards of these two teams. If that sounds familiar from me, it is probably because I say that for almost every game. The size of Ohio State's starting back court create mismatches for just about every opponent. Al Nolen and Blake Hoffarber are both seniors and very good players, but Diebler and Buford should be able to shoot over them and back them down with relative ease. Obviously, I am kidding about Diebler backing somebody down, but Buford should have his way in the paint with whoever guards him, and Diebler should get plenty of decent looks from beyond the arc.
Trevor Mbakwe is coming off a huge game against Indiana in which he tallied a double-double, with 11 points and 16 rebounds (7 on the offensive end). But as we saw when the Buckeyes played the Hoosiers, Indiana's big men aren't that big, and aren't that good. Going up against Sullinger and Lighty could be a rude awakening for the young man from St. Paul. I am really looking forward to these battles inside on Sunday.
Minnesota suffered a big loss when Devoe Joseph decided to transfer earlier this week.
Joseph is a big guard who can play both positions, and would have helped against the big guards of Ohio State. He was averaging just over 11 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, and was the first guard off the bench. He even started some this season. Because of his transfer, freshman guard Maverick Ahanmisi is going to have to play a bigger role, and in fact he played more minutes off the bench than any other player in Minnesota's victory against Indiana.
Joseph is a big guard who can play both positions, and would have helped against the big guards of Ohio State. He was averaging just over 11 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, and was the first guard off the bench. He even started some this season. Because of his transfer, freshman guard Maverick Ahanmisi is going to have to play a bigger role, and in fact he played more minutes off the bench than any other player in Minnesota's victory against Indiana.
Thad Matta is still keeping a pretty short bench, with only freshmen Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft seeing any consistent minutes. Craft is almost a starter, as he averages more minutes than Lauderdale does, and is the primary ball-handler whenever he is in the game. Thomas is still a scoring machine, but I have been even more impressed with his rebounding. It is nice to see a guy whose obvious role (and whose personal mission) is to provide scoring mix it up with the big guys down low.
|
Ohio State
|
||||||
|
Player
|
Position
|
Min.
PG
|
PPG
|
APG
|
RPG
|
|
|
Deshaun Thomas
|
SF
|
17.3
|
11
|
0.6
|
5
|
|
|
Aaron Craft
|
PG
|
26.7
|
5.1
|
4.9
|
2.7
|
|
|
Minnestoa
|
|||||
|
Player
|
Position
|
Min.
PG
|
PPG
|
APG
|
RPG
|
|
Maverick Ahanmisi
|
G
|
9.3
|
2.1
|
1
|
1.1
|
|
Austin Hollins
|
G
|
14.9
|
3.4
|
1.3
|
1
|
|
Colton Iverson
|
F-C
|
17.4
|
6.5
|
0.7
|
5.6
|
Finally, some team statistics:
|
Team
|
Ohio State
|
Minnesota
|
|
3 Point %
|
0.399
|
0.34
|
|
3 Point Attempts
|
296
|
259
|
|
Free Throw %
|
0.692
|
0.634
|
|
FT Attempts
|
295
|
391
|
|
Blocks PG
|
4
|
6
|
|
Turnovers PG
|
11
|
14
|
|
Steals PG
|
9
|
8
|
As always, try not to read too much into these generic stats. Rather, they should just serve as a base for determining what each team is generally good at. Ohio State's three point shooting percentage is astounding, shooting just under 40% as a team. Also, only 11 turnovers a game is a very good number. For Minnesota, I am impressed (see: surprised) by the number of free throw attempts. The Gophers have played the same number of games as the Buckeyes, and yet have attempted 94 more free throws than Ohio State has. I know I said earlier than Minnesota does have a solid front court, but the Buckeyes' is second to none. Just a fun little bit of knowledge.
(If you are truly interested in a deeper statistical analysis, I would suggest Sports Illustrated's article on foul rates by Luke Winn. To quickly summarize, Ohio State is having an historic season, and you should read it.)
This is not a game Ohio State can sleepwalk through. On Tuesday, the Buckeyes let Iowa, who is fighting for the title of Worst Team in the Big Ten, hang around the entire game. Painting with a broad stroke, this is a home game against a good, but not elite, team, and Ohio State should win. After the scare in Iowa, I expect the Buckeyes to show up with the right mentality, and put Minnesota in it's place, 70-60. There are still tickets available for this game, so take advantage of the opportunity to see two top 25 teams in action.
