Sunday, January 1, 2012

Gator Bowl Preview: Ohio State vs. Florida

The offense relies heavily on Braxton Miller
This was one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory for the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6, . The lineup changed from week to week due to suspensions and injuries. There was little or no continuity throughout. Against Michigan, though, some things finally clicked for the Buckeye offense in the season-ending loss to the Wolverines as they rolled up 372 yards total offense and 34 points on TTUN.

Quarterback Braxton Miller showed what he could be capable of as he accounted for 335 of those yards (235 passing, 100 rushing) and three touchdowns. Two of those TDs were long touchdown strikes, a 54-yarder to Philly Brown and a 43-yarder to DeVier Posey. That was only the second game the dynamic Posey played during the season because of suspensions. You know Posey will want to go out with a big game and look for Miller to try and find him early and often. Even Fickell and Bollman have admitted to drawing up some plays that feature the senior in some different keyed-in looks. OSU’s passing game ranked 117th (out of 120 teams) at 124.1 yards per game. The good news is that this team has aerial and vertical potential with Posey and Brown at full-go, which they showed against UM.

OSU’s running game was a mixed bag. The Buckeyes ended up 27th nationally at 195.7 yards per game on the ground. Running back Boom Herron was pretty much held in check during the three-game losing streak to end the season, which might explain the disastrous ending for Ohio State. They've relied on the run in November for the past couple of years, and this year it wasn't there to succeed.

Florida boasts an athletic and tough defense, even if there is not a lot of experience – seven of the 12 starters are freshmen or sophomores. The same can be said of the Ohio State offense, though. That youth worked against the Gators as they faltered against top competition in the SEC. Florida was 39th nationally in rushing defense (132.3 ypg), 10th in pass defense (167.3 ypg), ninth in total defense (299.6 ypg) and 25th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg). Key playmakers include MLB Jonathan Bostic and safety Matt Elam, who are all over the field on a consistent basis.
The Gators are at the best on offense when they get the ball into the hands of speedster Jeff Demps and shifty Chris Rainey. The goal is to get them loose on the perimeter, but that was difficult at times since John Brantley and the passing game largely failed to keep defenses honest. Brantley hasn't exactly had the season fans were hoping for, especially after many were calling him a great passer the previous year.

Meanwhile, Ohio State's defense had its own worst year in over a decade, giving up 20.8 points per game (26th nationally). OSU slipped to 53rd in rushing defense at 142.4 yards per game. With starting MLB Andrew Sweat out the last two games (Penn State and Michigan), OSU surrendered 239 yards on the ground to the Nittany Lions and 277 rushing to the Wolverines. Now with Sweat returning from injury and freshman LB Ryan Shazier doing the same, the defense should be prowling the middle to contain the run, and able to improve on covering passing routes as well.

Braxton Miller’s mobility allows him to keep plays alive and I think he should be able to get the ball out to Posey, Brown and tight end Reid Fragel, provided Stoneburner isn't able to go full-go after the recent injury/surgery news delivered from Luke Fickell on Saturday. OSU will also try to establish Herron, but that could be tough sledding. Even though Herron will run hard in his final game as a Buckeye, the Buckeyes really need to spread the ball around by giving it to Jordan Hall in any way possible, and most especially handing the ball off a bit more to Carlos Hyde.

Ohio State’s defense should be back up to midseason form, when the Buckeyes defeated Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana in consecutive weeks. It helps having Shazier and Sweat full-go at linebacker, but the secondary needs to play especially well in the tackling game. Safety Christian Bryant, also absent against Michigan, should also make an impact. If the Buckeyes can force Brantley into a turnover or two, that would be even better. With redshirt freshman Bradley Roby at corner, Ohio State has a very good chance of that happening.

Prediction
The Buckeyes are coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They had a tough year at 6-6, but it was more than that. Losing Jim Tressel, the Tat-Five situation, the NCAA, and the receiving of a bowl ban for the first year under Urban Meyer in 2012, has to have the Buckeyes motivated to get some momentum rolling into next year. This will be a good game to watch, but I expect both teams to give a tough fight. I'm going with the Buckeyes in a 23-14 victory over the Gators.
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